Tesla reported its Q3 supply figures this morning, with 462,890 autos making their approach to prospects all through the three-month span. Nonetheless, conflicting stories of a supply beat or a supply miss are circulating, however what’s the actual reply?
It really will depend on who you ask.
A beat or a miss on deliveries is all based mostly on what’s reported vs. Wall Avenue consensus. Main as much as the supply announcement this morning, Tesla’s Investor Relations reported that Wall Avenue consensus was put at 461,798, rounded as much as 462,000.
Different retailers reported 460,000 and 461,000.
Tesla stories 462,890 deliveries for Q3 with a robust quarter for vitality
This was based mostly on the outlook of 28 completely different companies and final week, stories circulated that the Wall Avenue consensus was 462,000, which aligned with what Tesla mentioned in its IR communication.
Tesla IR consensus was 462k pic.twitter.com/qAiJTiNpS2
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 2, 2024
Nonetheless, these numbers shifted this morning regardless of no extra companies placing out estimates for Tesla’s third quarter. The consensus quantity abruptly shifted to 463,000, that means Tesla’s reported supply figures would have gone from a slight beat to a slight miss.
Even Ives, who’s bullish on Tesla, had his consensus figures shift this morning. Final week in a observe, he wrote:
“Subsequent week, Tesla is predicted to announce its 3Q deliveries, which we consider will are available in above the Avenue’s 462k unit bogey with whisper numbers across the 465k – 470k vary.”
Ives had a special consensus determine this morning, in response to a observe launched after deliveries had been reported:
“Tesla simply introduced 3Q deliveries of 462.9k coming in-line with the Avenue’s 463.3k estimate and was under Avenue whisper numbers within the vary of 465-470k.”
Nonetheless, the supply figures, on both finish of the spectrum, are consistent with estimates.
Ives wrote in a observe this morning that the quantity Tesla reported was “in-line” with Wall Avenue, that means no true upside however a step in the precise route:
“The 463k quantity we might characterize pretty much as good and a step in the precise route however clearly we and the Avenue had been hoping for 3k-5k upside to this quantity and we’ll see some strain on shares this morning as traders stroll away from supply numbers anticipating extra. Total, it is a clear enchancment from 1H and we consider getting within the vary of 1.8 million for the yr remains to be the important thing and essential bogey.”
One factor is for positive: Tesla remains to be combating to offset its deliberate slowdown in annual progress due to its give attention to the next-gen platform.
We’d not see the two million mark for one more yr or two, however conserving demand up with up to date car designs, just like the Mannequin 3 Highland, and a extra reasonably priced Single-Motor Cybertruck deliberate for 2025 may maintain issues attention-grabbing, probably serving to to stall the outlook that the true progress part previous to the Robotaxi rollout is over.
Tesla will depend on a robust This fall, together with its Robotaxi unveiling occasion to maintain issues bullish by way of the rest of 2024.
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